April 12, 2008

Just so you know

Tighten the belt, batten down the hatch, stock up on SPAM, buy ear plugs to avoid the deafening sound of bursting and whack on the rain coat.

Yes, this is a community announcement.

Don't ever say that I don't provide you with life-style warnings and other important stuff to get you through the years.

According to some really old, really rich guy in America, the bubble is going to burst it's shiny coating and the remnants are going to leave us all soggy and icky for years to come, because that's what happens when an elderly 25 year old bubble cracks the shits.

"At the age of 77, Mr. Soros, one the world’s most successful investors and richest men, leapt out of retirement last summer to safeguard his fortune and legacy. Alarmed by the unfolding crisis in the financial markets, he once again began trading for his giant hedge fund — and won big while so many others lost."

Soooo, his bubble is safe, it's only the rest of us who have to worry.

"Last week he rushed out a book, his 10th, warning that the financial pain has only just begun.

“I consider this the biggest financial crisis of my lifetime,” Mr. Soros said during an interview Monday in his office overlooking Central Park. A “superbubble” that has been swelling for a quarter of a century is finally bursting, he said.

... this is not the first time that Mr. Soros has prophesied doom. In 1998, he published a book predicting a global economic collapse that never came."

If one bubble doesn't burst, get a sharper pin.

"Mr. Soros thinks that this time he is right. Now in his eighth decade, he yearns to be remembered not only as a great trader but also as a great thinker. The market theory he has promoted for two decades and espoused most of his life — something he calls “reflexivity” — is still dismissed by many economists. The idea is that people’s biases and actions can affect the direction of the underlying economy, undermining the conventional theory that markets tend toward some sort of equilibrium."

Now, as much as Mr. Soros might be too rich for his own good, and possibly harbors intellectual pretensions beyond his bank balance - and "reflexivity" is a stupid word - I'll admit that I'm partial to his theory, which is more demonstrably accurate than the fairytale of classic economics and market equilibrium.

Economics is based on the cute assumption of a rational buyer with full knowledge, neither of which is ever true.

Soros needs a handful of terms with better marketability than "reflexivity", which sounds a little too much like a rebellious and extreme branch of reflexology believers.

The Face of a Prophet ...

1 comment:

  1. Good insightful post Caz!
    "The face of a prophet.."