March 10, 2008

No dynamic duo

Having beaten him up and tossed him to the curb for being too inexperienced, too black and altogether too dodgy, Bill and Hill are spruiking Obama as terrific Vice Prez material.

Truth: Hill doesn't want Obama as a running mate, but she will need his financial supporters and his votes if, by continuing cynical manipulations, she wins the Dem's presidential nomination.

Truth: the very last person Hill will appoint as her V.P is a man who would always be seen as more respected, admired, popular, inspirational - and younger.

Hillary Clinton: swallowing the olive branch of unbridled desire for personal power since the 1970s.


  1. Obama is on the record as not running for the "vice".

    Hillary trails by a conservative 100 delegates. She will argue that she "won" the major states. See my take on Texas for that bullshit.

    This will come dowwn to the party oligarchs: the "superdelegates". Hillary knows this and this attempt to paint Obama as a Vice-candidate is aimed squarely in their direction.

    If they've any brains, the oligarchs that is, they will nominate the candidate they feel will win it.

    That candidate is not Hillary.

  2. Hillary Clinton in Newsweek:

    "Question: How can you win the nomination when the math looks so bleak for you?

    It doesn't look bleak at all. I have a very close race with Senator Obama. There are elected delegates, caucus delegates and superdelegates, all for different reasons, and they're all equal in their ability to cast their vote for whomever they choose. Even elected and caucus delegates are not required to stay with whomever they are pledged to.

    If this is how Hillary plans to build good-will within her own party, her chances of stealing the nomination any way she can seem shot to hell already.

    A reprehensible tactic. The smell of desperation is most unbecoming.

    Mind you, I'm still not 100% convinced that Obama will get the nomination, that is, I don't understand enough about how much can go wrong or change - within ethical and procedural boundaries - between now and the Dem's convention.

    Perhaps Hill can still get up, she obviously believes so.

  3. The caucus delegates are not strictly "bound". They will, in large percentage, vote the way they've indicated unless there's significant derailing of a campaign or dealing done in the back-rooms of the convention by those who can marshal their votes. This dealing is what tipped the '32 nomination for FDR

    Her statement about "pledged" delegates is desperation writ large. Unless the procedure has been changed these are bound to vote for the candidate for whom they "stood" or were elected.

    The dealing will go on for the "superdelegates". Being the elected memnbers of congress and the party officials there is plenty to gain from selecting the right candidate - not the least plum positions in any Democratic administration that might be elected.

    Obama has taken Wyoming 61% to 38% and thus will score a siginficant number of the 12 pledged delegates. Not large but like a game of snooker, it removes the points from the table and reduces those available to Hilary. Ditto today's race in Mississippi where one might expect similar percentages for its 40 delegates. The mathematics for Hillary, as the reds are removed from the table and thus scoring oportunities evaporate, are becoming daunting.

    Hillary's in shit. Pennsylvania or bust. She needs a rout that will net the vast bulk of the 188 on offer.

  4. Hillary, with 89% reported in, trails in Mississippi by 38.7% of the vote to 59.1%. You'd think that the senator from Illinois will bag an extra dozen or so over Hillary's count. The maths becomes ever more difficult.

    Unless there is an Obama white-out in Pennsylavania Hillary has a swag of smaller states left - in which she has not so far excelled - and the one "biggun": Nth Carolina with its 134.

    Any wonder Hillary's casting about for hopeful scenarios...

  5. But Father, she's building momentum, damn it, she is!!

    I would feel sorry for her, if only I could muster up some sympathy.

    Guess she's come this far, she won't let go until they escort her out of the building, as it were.

    Will be an intriguing election either way, but Obama up against McCain would make for a challenging decision for some of the US voters at least.

    In truth, I don't think it would matter who leads the Dem's, they'll romp it in, which must sting all the more for Hillary.

  6. Yep: the Dems have a huge hope. McCain will be no pushover but with all his huffing and puffing about US power and his support of the Iraq war the Dems will travel closer to the US mood. McCain, no matter what he says, is tainted by that congress of 2000-04. He can no more deny his support of the way, its subsequent funding bills and the "surge" than can Hillary or did Kerry.

    Unless something horrible befalls Obama's campaign, I can't see Hillary getting the nod. The Morrella fella at WD seems to think that Hillary will call in the Clinton markers and get the nod easily with the dealing. The way she's behaving at the present, those favours are proving short on the ground.

    Arguments that she won the bigger states mean squat all: it's a game of numbers and Obama has them.

    Gore had the vote in 2000; after the Supreme Court ruling, Bush had the electoral college by the merest margin. The numbers in the college matter; the delegate numbers should too matter. Obama might as easily claim he won more states.

    Obama has, and likely will have, the delegate numbers. There will be some serious gnashing of Democrat teeth should he go to the convention some 100-150 (or more) delgates ahead and have the powerbrokers deal him out of the nomination.

    Not to say it can't happen though. It is going to be interesting: Pennsylavania has to be huge for Hillary. If it's another Texas.... goodnight sweetheart.

  7. If Hillary was going to try the back room deals approach, and clearly that's the Clinton plan, announcing the tactic to the world probably wasn't the brightest idea she's ever had. Even those who might have been turnable would now be dodging and weaving to hide from her, lest they be singled out for public attention and scrutiny.

    Guess Hillary didn't quite understand the concept of "back room deals" actually being done in "back rooms", not in front of a media conference.

    Thank you for sharing the numbers and the details Father, much appreciated.