June 24, 2010

Breasts or Budgies

The Australian electorate now has a stark choice, each unattractive in it's own way: Gillard or Abbott.

A clear choice.

The chalk and cheese kind.

The election will not be held until next year. (It was never going to be this year, not even with Rudd as the PM.)

Gillard will romp it in over the man in the budgie smugglers.

The only question is how Greg Combet will be placed in Gillard's cabinet and how patient he is.

The ALP is going to be in power for quite some time. Combet can take things at his leisure. Gillard will keep the seat warm.


  1. Solomon12:12 PM

    She's going to rip him a new asshole.

  2. Craig W8:33 PM

    Are you sure it wont be this year? The NSW state election is being held in March and the Fed must be before April. I am not sure that the Federal ALP wants to be out walking the streets at the same time as the State ALP here - so that probably rules out Feb - March. April perhaps? But otherwise, Sept - Dec seems to be the window.

    Why do you think that Gillard will romp it in Sol? Not at all convinced of that myself

  3. Craig - AFL finals in September, rugby finals shortly thereafter, and Victorian elections in first week of November.

    That would leave, right before Xmas? Not going to happen.

    Gillard indicated "in the coming months", but that would be too soon, and it would be a winter election. No one likes to go and vote in winter, and the kissing-babies and cuddling pensioners photographs aren't as sunny and uplifting against grey skies.

    I noticed that even the political "experts" - Graham Richardson, Negus, were this morning predicting late October or early November. But they obviously forgot that the whole of October and the prior month will be full-blown state election mode in Victoria.

    Still, maybe Gillard will do the unthinkable, and have a winter election. August?

    If not, her next window of opportunity isn't until 2011 - could go in February, once schools are back?

  4. I think that Gillard will probably go to the polls early, Caz.. The honeymoon phase will be her best chance of securing government, before the Libs gain any traction... If that is at all possible with Abbott as leader!

  5. Craig W9:55 PM

    Caz - the NSW election is March 11 (I think) - do you really, really think that they want to be campaigning up here in the lead up to our state election - I just cant imagine that at all, especially in light of the Penrith by election. In summary, I think they have picked a real bad time to change leaders. Andrew Bolt had some supposed ALP internal polling (no numbers only who would win seat) and the results were pretty grim for the ALP. Considering the enormous good will they came into things with, they really have stuffed up things in a big way.

  6. Craig - agreed. Hence why she's probably going to have to do the unthinkable: hold a winter election, in the run up to the ALF finals.


    Either that or it will be April?

    NSW ALP are stuffed, in any case. The Libs could run without a leader and they'd still romp it in (surely?).

    Of course, if Gillard wants the Rudds to stay happily ensconced in the Lodge, until the youngest son finished out the school year, well, she wouldn't want to have to toss the family to the curb until exams are over in November.

    Also agree that the timing is abysmal. Contrary to what Gillard has claimed, the government had not "lost its way", nor was the mining tax a vote-turner - the electorate overwhelmingly support the tax, yet Gillard has already flagged that her kimono will be flung open to do a deal with the mining billionaires. Bloody strange, particularly for a Marxist.

    It's all, well, gobsmackingly stupid Craig.

    The ALP have not done a good job of things, Rudd squandered his time as PM, been a complete drop-kick about winning the holy grail (begs the question why he wanted the bloody job in the first place), but despite that, he still would have led them to a second term.

    Gillard need not have rushed it, the party didn't need to rush to change. Irrational. Self-serving, that is, today's events had nothing to do with saving the fucking country, and I don't care how often Gillard claims otherwise in the coming weeks.

    Irrational power with all the sparkles. Sure, it's pretty, but I can't fathom what it is they think they've just achieved.

    Abbott will give it his best shot, he'll gain seats. Their ad people will have a field day with Gillard during the election campaign. I suppose that will be fun, in its own small way.

    But really, I don't think anything changed. The balance between the contenders didn't really shift, not to the extent of changing outcome of the next election.