July 20, 2008

Is your uncomfortable hunch hurting yet?


Dr David Evans was a consultant to the Australian Greenhouse Office from 1999 to 2005. He gave six years of his life to carbon accounting and building models for the Australian Greenhouse Office.

He is:
"the rocket scientist who wrote the carbon accounting model (FullCAM) that measures Australia's compliance with the Kyoto Protocol, in the land use change and forestry sector."
In other words, just like Dr Vincent Gray, Dr David Evans knows and understands a whole shit-load more about the climate than you, or me, or Kev Rudd, or Al Gore, or Tim Flannery will ever know or understand.

Dr Evans isn't buying any of it. He even agrees with my whinging, nagging, replicable riff that the global economy should not be torn asunder without proof of such a requirement - and there is none, which is what I've been carping about all along. A computer model is nothing; some bits of hardware and some apps. Since when did hardware and apps and a pile of incomplete dodgy-data constitute a scientific method or a serum of robust proof?

The only motives driving a catastrophic and humongous cash transfer from those who have to those who haven't are human conceit, arrogance and stunt-jump-politics. This isn't about the environment. This isn't about saving one little planet. This is a socialist dictatorship by stealth.

Don't kid yourselves that this is altruism writ-large. This is fraud, deceit, the devil in the detail obfuscated by a thousand insults.

Yes, the "deniers" are evil. There will be no redemption for those who refuse to self-flagellate over their use of modern-fandangled inventions like electricity, hot running water, sewage pipes, sliced bread, dilapidation creams and leather shoes.

Dr Evans writes, inter alia:
"The onus should be on those who want to change things to provide evidence for why the changes are necessary. The Australian public is eventually going to have to be told the evidence anyway, so it might as well be told before wrecking the economy."
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"... since 1999 new evidence has seriously weakened the case that carbon emissions are the main cause of global warming, and by 2007 the evidence was pretty conclusive that carbon played only a minor role and was not the main cause of the recent global warming. As Lord Keynes famously said, "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

There has not been a public debate about the causes of global warming and most of the public and our decision makers are not aware of the most basic salient facts:

1. The greenhouse signature is missing. We have been looking and measuring for years, and cannot find it.

2. There is no evidence to support the idea that carbon emissions cause significant global warming. None.

3. The satellites that measure the world's temperature all say that the warming trend ended in 2001, and that the temperature has dropped about 0.6C in the past year (to the temperature of 1980).

4. The new ice cores show that in the past six global warmings over the past half a million years, the temperature rises occurred on average 800 years before the accompanying rise in atmospheric carbon. Which says something important about which was cause and which was effect.

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In the minds of the audience, the evidence that global warming has occurred becomes conflated with the alleged cause, and the audience hasn't noticed that the cause was merely asserted, not proved.

The world has spent $50 billion on global warming since 1990, and we have not found any actual evidence that carbon emissions cause global warming.

Computer models and theoretical calculations are not evidence, they are just theory.

The Labor Government is about to deliberately wreck the economy in order to reduce carbon emissions. If the reasons later turn out to be bogus, the electorate is not going to re-elect a Labor government for a long time. When it comes to light that the carbon scare was known to be bogus in 2008, the ALP is going to be regarded as criminally negligent or ideologically stupid for not having seen through it. And if the Liberals support the general thrust of their actions, they will be seen likewise."

No smoking hot spot

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