February 11, 2007

Long Bets

"By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth..."

In time, we'll understand that killing animals for nutrition is no different than slavery or colonization. We'll be ashamed of our past. The next step of this will be to become autotrophic. We'll figure out that killing plants is also a sin! And as our technology allows it, we'll start injecting chlorophylls into our body and just like plants, we'll start producing our energy by ourselves and working with the solar power. This will allow us to stay alive without killing any living and this will be very cool!

"Evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence within the solar system will be confirmed before evidence from several light-years away."

I am betting that extraterrestrial (non-Earth) intelligence, in one form or another, has already reached our solar system and will be confirmed first.

"By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks."

I predict robots with AI will inevitably be uncontrollable and over power their human masters. Schooling and education is what the children of the future need to fend off these super human robots. Therefore, many schools will offer if not require training in robot fighting. The first wave of these schools to offer the class will be around 2120.

"Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now."

The information revolution is not going to mess much with the atoms in our city; it will re-arrange our work, our relationships, and our identities, and animate the inanimate in the city. But standing downtown, you'll see what you see now.

"By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification."

Despite our outward social and technological advancements, even evolutions, we are still driven by the eon old concepts of survival and protection. This is, as it has always been and always will be, human nature. Combine these driving forces with technology and a revenue-driven industrial complex ? mix with a healthy dose of fear (both real and manufactured) and a bleaker reality emerges.

"The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context."

Reality is energy recording information. As the amount of energy remains the same, old information is erased as new is recorded. What exists is the energy and the information that is currently recorded. We are not simply at a point on a line because past and future do not exist, except as they pertain to what is present.

Absolute zero is the absence of motion. No mass, no energy, no past, no future.
Just empty space.

"The Long Bets Foundation will no longer exist in 2104."

Some cataclysmic event will wipe us out in the next 100 years.

Whatever the cause, human society will go the way of the dinosaurs. There will be no more Internet.


  1. Anonymous8:52 PM

    Can sum all that up with one eloquent word!


  2. That's why they're "long bets" Kath.

    Anyone who can get someone to accept their bet, and who then lives long enough to collect, has the winning money given to a charity of choice.

    Downtown cities in America will look pretty much the same in 200 years time as they do now? - I wouldn't be at all surprised if that proves to be true.

    The linearity of time could well be replaced, but probably not in our lifetime. I wouldn’t bet against that possibility.